Donald Trump’s reelection as US president is likely to have a range of impacts across the world and from movies to technology will be especially felt in a lot of the industries we cover here at RedShark.
Donald Trump will be inaugurated as US President for the second time in January 2025. It’s hard to imagine one person being able to shape so many different industries to fit their own world view, but a lot of different things are suddenly in play here. And when ideologies are to the fore, as they often are with Trump, the title of ‘the most powerful man on Earth’ which is normally applied to the US President as a courtesy actually feels like the correct label.
So, and keeping things as on-topic and apolitical as we can, what are some of the likely effects we will see in our industry?
To begin with, it’s widely assumed by economists that Trump’s protectionist instincts will result in a strong dollar. This would normally result in foreign kit, everything from cheap Chinese lenses to expensive cine cameras, being less expensive in the US markets, but any gains here are likely to be offset by trade tariffs. If he follows up on his campaign proposals of a 60% tariff on all Chinese imports and a universal 10% tariff on imports from all countries, then the cost of buying much of the kit that filmmakers use day in and day out is going to rise significantly.
Conversely, we might see the rapid return of flyaway productions as the strong dollar means savings can be made by using local crews to produce content in foreign countries. This is something already underway; a combination of a reaction to the Hollywood strike actions, tax breaks, and local market knowledge luring many streamers’ productions in particular outside of the US over the past two years. This trend might well accelerate.
The Motion Picture Association, congratulated Trump on his victory, but was very very quick to point out that “the film, TV, and streaming industry…supports more than 2.7 million American jobs, boosts more than 240,000 businesses in cities and small towns across the country, and delivers over $242 billion in wages to our workforce each year.”
Trump’s uneasy relationship with legacy media means much is up in the air. At one point or another over the past year he has called for pretty much all the major networks to lose their licenses, and we are likely to see a light touch to regulation. We were overdue a period of consolidation and merger activity anyway as the big media conglomerates readjust to the end of peak TV post-Covid. Again, this might just be something that simply gets accelerated under Trump’s tenure, but with a new FCC appointee highly likely Trump could really light the blue touchpaper to some major reshaping of the media landscape.
A related topic given the importance of the FCC as a regulator here is what happens to net neutrality. Effectively it’s dead in the water. As The Verge writes, Bloomberg Intelligence analyst Nathan Dean predicts a 90% chance the FCC abandons the effort to reclassify broadband providers as common carriers and subject them to greater regulatory scrutiny all together.
Elon Musk could also play a decisive part in killing off the Broadband Equity, Access, and Deployment (BEAD) infrastructure investment program. This currently favours fiber broadband, but Starlink-owner Musk is unsurprisingly not a fan (an “outrageous waste of taxpayer money,” is one quote) so it’s probably best to consider this on notice of upheaval.
Talking of Musk, rumours currently around Washington suggest that he could be put in charge of AI policy which would have some consequences best described as interesting. In fact, he’s possibly more conservative with a small ‘c’ here than he is with some of his other views, in August supporting the since-vetoed California AI safety bill that would have put guardrails on AI developers. He’s also stated that there is a 10% to 20% chance that AI “goes bad.” This is not necessarily reassuring.
In contrast, Trump’s VP, JD Vance, has pooh-poohed the notion of AI risk, stating that it is just a ploy by Big Tech to make sure that they remain the driving force behind developments rather than ceding power to another start up such as OpenAI.
Like a lot of policies that the new look White House will oversee, much is going to depend on the people involved, where they get appointed, and the single man who will place them there. It will be an interesting four years…